jeudi 5 février 2026

殷周之变和周秦之变 The Shang (Yin)–Zhou transition vs. the Zhou–Qin transition


这个视频比秦晖更懂中国历史。殷周之变比周秦之变更根本、更深刻。
秦晖青年时代正值评法批儒之际,其史观始终束缚于毛太祖所谓“中国自周秦以来就一直……”的命题,故尔把周秦之变看作中国古代史上最根本的变局,把儒法对立,或者说小、大共同体矛盾看成中国古代最重要的矛盾。
秦晖没能意识到的是,周制已然孕育着秦制,秦制实为周制的升级版。周制、秦制对于文明世界、国家形态和社会构成的理想,都是一个高度一元化且等级分明的金字塔。在周制里,天子高踞金字塔尖,诸侯卿大夫依照等级伦次分踞金字塔的不同位置,通过礼制体现严整划一的秩序。这已经是后世秦制高度集权的科层化制度的雏形。所不同者贯彻途径和程度耳。周天子何尝乐意止步于各亲其亲的小共同体分散自治的状态?溥天之下莫非王土,率土之滨莫非王臣,原本就是周的口号;旨在编户口控制人丁的所谓料民,也是周宣王的创举。不是不努力,是技术手段还跟不上,非不为也,实未能耳。
秦晖无数次拿周制和欧洲中世纪封建制相比附。这种比附显然是无知、肤浅的。相比于周的高度一元化且秩序井然的金字塔封建制,欧洲封建制从来就是分散、多元、凌乱的。东法兰克的德意志王尽管加上了皇帝头衔,西边的法兰西王从来不曾向皇帝效忠,不是皇帝的附庸;诺曼底公爵倒是法王的附庸,向法王效忠,却自己领兵征服了英吉利,当起了英王,同时仍然保持作为法王附庸的诺曼底公爵身份;勃兰登堡选帝侯征服波罗的海沿岸,加上了普鲁士王的冠冕,可是在神圣罗马帝国框架里,他仍然是勃兰登堡选帝侯……这种不能在一元化金字塔框架里识别的多重头衔,在周制里是完全不存在的。至于欧洲中世纪直到近代跨国的王位或领主继承以及因为联姻、继承而产生的领地分合、交换,更不是周制所能容纳,直到今天也很难被大多数中国人理解。
因此,当周封建和欧洲封建各自瓦解时,两者的趋势截然不同。秦晖始终不能解释的是,为什么周制瓦解的结果是堕入秦制,而欧洲封建制的瓦解并未导致秦制的建立。诚然,欧洲封建制瓦解后,出现过专制王权,同秦制似乎有点相似。其实不然。比起之前的封建制和之后的宪政,欧洲近代的专制王权当然很“专制”,但即便是路易十四建立的那套绝对专制以及配套的官僚制度,同秦皇汉武的那套秦制仍然大异其趣。路易十四为控制贵族,让他们住在凡尔赛宫,沉迷在凡尔赛浮华的社交生活中,乐不思蜀;汉朝为控制王侯,却决计不会让他们住进未央宫长乐宫上林苑享福,而是叫他们各自就封,并派遣国相监视,稍有差错违碍,就顺势处罚废黜,甚至肉体消灭。站在皇上的立场上,秦汉制度比路易十四的绝对专制显然强悍、高效得多。
事实上路易十四的绝对专制的制度化也远远不如秦制,绝对专制能否维系,很大程度上却决于君主个人的性格、才能和权威。因此绝对专制本质上更接近威权政治。传到第三代君王路易十六,为财政危机居然不得不重开三级会议,以至于大权旁落,最后身首异处。之后虽有拿破仑,有波旁复辟,却再也没能像汉承秦制那样恢复革命前的绝对专制以及旧制度,相反,法国从此走向宪政,过程虽然曲折,但并未沿着高度一元化的专制道路继续发展,是显而易见的。
相反,周制深刻塑造並束缚了中国人对于文明世界、国家形态和社会构成的想象。一元化的金字塔结构是中国人理解这些问题的唯一参照系,以至于直到今天,他们中的大多数还是无法理解没有级别、等第、职称标识的社会身份,没法想象存在一种分散多元的国家形态,至于面对着万国林立的世界,他们也是口服心不服,于是这些年稍微阔了点,就只知有中美,不知有他国——在他们眼里,中美并峙也只是楚汉相争的暂时过渡状态,早晚是要由中国横扫六合归于一统,那才是个理想的世界。
关于世界、国家和社会的想象力的贫乏,使得中国人将整齐划一的金字塔视作唯一值得追求的目标。先秦的诸子百家生当礼崩乐坏原有金字塔崩溃的时代,无不以重建一座金字塔为目标,其分歧只在于实现这金字塔理想国的手段和途径。儒道法墨追求的都是天下归一,都想象不出分散多元的“天下”。或谓老子小国寡民代表着分散多元,其实老死不相往来的小国寡民是另一种形式的“一”,这里不展开。
延至后世,如果说某个朝代某个君王被认为很差劲,那多半是因为他没能维护好那个金字塔秩序,如果原有的金字塔秩序在他手里崩溃了,那么就必须有一个新的英雄来收拾金字塔的碎片,建造一个新的金字塔,而且多半应是一个更牢固的金字塔。一般而言,原有金字塔破碎得越严重,重建的金字塔就更为集中、更为牢固——民众起义、异族入侵所导致的新朝代,诸如秦汉、元魏、隋唐、赵宋、朱明、满清大多如此,唯一的例外是始终不曾脱离草原本位因而并不把中国当作统治重心的蒙元;相反,魏晋宋齐梁陈的禅让,以其不够暴烈,原有的金字塔始终并未彻底崩坏,原有的金字塔在这整个过程中便呈现为衰败和修复的进程,最终还是不敌元魏重组的那个更牢固的金字塔。
金字塔的更替,就叫做“革命”。所谓革命,革的就是周人所提出的“天命”。这个视频谈的是周的天命观对中国历史的影响。一个英文视频能把这个问题讲到如此程度,已经很厉害。
不过在我看来,支配这种天命观的思想前提,仍然是那个高度一元化的金字塔理想国。天是唯一的、至高的,却并不是后世西亚一神教所设想的包含全部一切的至高和唯一,而是一种被包含在更大的秩序中的至高和唯一。周所提出的天,其实就是金字塔尖的象征——金字塔尖是至高且唯一的,但并不是金字塔的全部。天子作为天在人间的代表,也是一个更大的秩序中的至高和唯一,其本身仍是这个秩序中的一部分。
这给天子的地位带来了隐患,因为金字塔尖固然是至高和唯一的,但是谁可以盘踞在塔尖(也就是受天命)却是不确定的。说到底,天命观是对这个金字塔理想国的粉饰。在周初,这种粉饰有利于周制的维持,但正如视频所指出,时过境迁,随着金字塔的老坏衰朽,这种观念就有可能会威胁到具体君王的合法性。于是就有“革命”——真命天子何以能获得真天命?全然视乎他能否重建一个更严整、更稳固、更持久的金字塔。整个中国历史轨迹,就是周制金字塔破碎后升级为秦制金字塔,秦制金字塔崩溃后修正为汉制金字塔,汉制金字塔缓慢衰败四百年,终于由元魏系统的隋唐重整升级为隋唐金字塔,隋唐金字塔瓦解后又有赵宋升级版本金字塔,这个金字塔毁于金元后又升级为朱明金字塔、满清金字塔,民国乱局后又进一步升级为结构秩序更严密、覆盖领域更宽广的国朝金字塔。
周秦的差异,只是手段和程度的区别,目标理想却是一致的。相反,从来没有证据表明殷商产生过一元化金字塔理想国的观念。作为一元化金字塔理想国的粉饰话语的天命说也毫无疑问是周提出的。因此,殷周之变实为中国历史上最深刻的一次大变局,其深刻程度远过于周秦之变。殷周之变是系统更替,周秦之变只是系统升级——后世历朝则是这个系统继续朝向金字塔理想国目标曲折且逐步地升级的过程。
至于何以能够升级,跟外来技术有很大关系。在古代早期,这种外来影响主要来自西域和草原。事实上,周、秦都是来自西面的方伯部族,他们受到西域和草原的影响最深,因而也最先掌握某些技术并接受某种更抽象的理念。周和秦在各自时代的所谓制度建设上也确实成就卓越,远超东方部族,而周秦之间,则以周更富于“创造性”,秦只是继踵步武,进一步完善周的理想。是周而不是秦塑造且束缚了中国人制度想象。百代皆行秦法政固然不假,秦政原从周礼来才是更完整的故事。
略识以上数语,聊补这个英文视频所未及。
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This video demonstrates a better understanding of Chinese history than Qin Hui does. The Shang (Yin)–Zhou transition was more fundamental and more profound than the Zhou–Qin transition. 

Qin Hui came of age during a period marked by the campaign for ‘the Reassessment of Legalism and the Critique of Confucian orthodoxy’. His historical outlook has remained constrained by Mao Zedong’s well-known proposition that ‘From the Chou (Zhou) and Chin (Qin) Dynasties onwards, Chinese society was ...’. As a result, Qin Hui treats the Zhou–Qin transition as the most fundamental transformation in premodern Chinese history, and regards the opposition between Confucianism and Legalism—or, in his own terms, the tension between small and large communities—as the most significant one in premodern China.

What Qin Hui failed to realize is that the Zhou system had already given rise to what he calls the Qin system—a highly centralized state system first established by the Qin and one that continues to shape China to this day. The latter was, in fact, an upgraded version of the former. Both the Zhou and Qin systems envisioned the civilized world, the form of the state, and the structure of society as a highly unified and sharply hierarchical pyramid. Under the Zhou system, the king—who styled himself the ‘Son of Heaven’—occupied the apex of the pyramid, while the zhuhou (regional hereditary rulers), ministers, and officials were arrayed below according to rank and ritual order. Through the system of rites, a rigid and uniform hierarchy was both expressed and enforced. This already constituted the embryonic form of the highly centralized and bureaucratized order later perfected under the Qin. The differences lay only in the means of implementation and the degree to which this order was realized. 

Did the Zhou kings ever willingly accept a condition of fragmented, autonomous self-rule among small, kin-based communities? I think not. ‘All under Heaven belongs to the king; all within the borders are his subjects’ was originally a Zhou slogan. Even the so-called liao min—the registration of households for the purpose of population control—was an innovation of King Xuan of Zhou. It was not for lack of effort that the Zhou failed to achieve full centralisation; rather, the technical means had not yet made it possible. It was not that they did not intend to do so, but that they were unable to do so.

Qin Hui has repeatedly assimilated the Zhou system to medieval European feudalism, treating the two as essentially equivalent. Such an approach is clearly ignorant and superficial. In contrast to the Zhou system’s highly unified and orderly pyramidal structure, European feudalism was always fragmented, plural, and chaotic. Although the king of East Francia assumed the title of emperor, the king of France to the west never swore allegiance to him and was not his vassal. The Duke of Normandy, though a vassal of the French king and owing him fealty, led his own forces to conquer England, became king of England, and yet retained his identity as Duke of Normandy under the French crown. The Elector of Brandenburg conquered the Baltic coast and took on the crown of King of Prussia, yet within the framework of the Holy Roman Empire he remained merely the Elector of Brandenburg. 

Such multiple and overlapping titles—impossible to situate within a single, unified pyramidal framework—were entirely absent from the Zhou system. As for the inheritance of thrones or lordships across different realms in medieval and even early modern Europe, along with the continual division, consolidation, and exchange of territories through marriage and succession, these arrangements were even less compatible with the Zhou system and, to this day, remain difficult for most Chinese to comprehend. 

Accordingly, when the Zhou system and European feudalism collapsed, the directions in which they developed were fundamentally different. What Qin Hui has never been able to explain is why the collapse of the Zhou system resulted in the formation of the Qin system, whereas the collapse of European feudalism did not lead to the establishment of a Qin-style order.

Admittedly, after the breakdown of European feudalism, absolutist monarchies did emerge, and at first glance they may appear somewhat similar to the Qin system. In reality, however, they were fundamentally different. Compared with both the preceding feudal order and the subsequent constitutional order, early modern European absolutism was indeed ‘absolute’, but even the system of absolute monarchy constructed by Louis XIV, together with its accompanying bureaucratic apparatus, differed profoundly from the Qin system of the Emperor Qin Shi Huangdi or Emperor Wu of Han. 

Louis XIV sought to control the nobility by having them reside at Versailles, immersing them in its lavish court life and rendering them politically harmless. The Handynasty, by contrast, would never have allowed princes and nobles to live in the Weiyang Palace, the Changle Palace, or the Shanglin Park to enjoy themselves. Instead, they were sent to their respective fiefs, monitored by centrally appointed chancellors; the slightest misstep could be seized upon as a pretext for punishment, deposition, or even physical elimination. From the ruler’s perspective, the Qin–Han system was clearly more ruthless and more efficient than Louis XIV’s absolutism. 

In fact, the institutionalization of Louis XIV’s absolutism was far weaker than that of the Qin system. Whether absolutism could be sustained depended to a large extent on the personal character, ability, and authority of the monarch. In essence, absolutism was closer to authoritarian rule. By the third generation, under Louis XVI, a fiscal crisis forced the reopening of the Estates-General, power slipped away, and he ultimately lost his head. Although Napoleon later emerged and the Bourbons were restored, it was no longer possible—unlike the Han succession to Qin institutions—to restore the pre-revolutionary absolute monarchy and ancien régime. Instead, France embarked on an irreversible path toward constitutionalism. Though the process was tortuous, it is evident that it did not continue along the path of ever more highly unified despotism. 

By contrast, the Zhou system profoundly shaped and constrained the Chinese imagination of civilization, state form, and social structure. A unified pyramidal structure became the sole frame of reference through which these issues were understood. Even today, most Chinese find it difficult to comprehend social identities without rank, gradations, or official titles, or to imagine a dispersed and pluralistic form of statehood. Faced with a world of many coexisting nations, they may acquiesce verbally but remain unconvinced at heart. Thus, in recent years, with only an increase in national prosperity, their geopolitical imagination has shrunk to a binary vision of China versus the United States, as though no other countries truly existed. Even this apparent Sino-American parity is, in their eyes, merely a temporary transitional moment akin to the Chu–Han contention, destined to give way sooner or later to China’s sweeping unification of the world. Only such a return to all-under-one rule is regarded as the ideal order. 

This impoverished imagination concerning the world, the state, and society has led Chinese thinkers to regard a neat, uniform pyramid as the only goal worth pursuing. The various pre-Qin schools of thought emerged in an age when the Zhou order had collapsed and the original pyramidal structure had disintegrated; yet without exception, all of them sought to reconstruct a pyramid. Their disagreements concerned only the means and pathways through which this pyramidal ideal state was to be realized. Confucianism, Daoism, Legalism, and Mohism all aspired to the unification of tianxia—the human world under Heaven—and none was able to conceive of a genuinely dispersed and pluralistic tianxia. Some have argued that Laozi’s vision of ‘small states with few people’ represents such pluralism; in fact, however, small states that remain mutually isolated and non-interacting merely constitute another form of ‘oneness,’ a point that will not be elaborated here. 

In later ages, when a particular dynasty or ruler was judged incompetent, this judgment was usually attributed to his failure to maintain the pyramidal order. If the existing pyramid collapsed under his rule, a new hero was then required to gather up its fragments and construct a new pyramid—most often a stronger one. Generally speaking, the more thoroughly the original pyramid was shattered, the more concentrated and solid the reconstructed pyramid became. Dynasties founded in the aftermath of popular uprisings or foreign invasions—such as the Qin–Han, the Tuoba Wei and its successor regimes, the Sui–Tang, the Zhao Song, the Ming, and the Manchu Qing—largely followed this pattern. The sole exception was the Mongol Yuan, which never departed from its steppe-centered orientation and therefore did not treat China as the core of its rule. By contrast, the abdications of the Wei, Jin, Liu Song, Southern Qi, Liang, and Chen dynasties, being insufficiently violent, never fully destroyed the existing pyramid. Throughout this period, the pyramid appeared instead as a prolonged process of decay and repair, until it was ultimately overwhelmed by the more solid pyramid reconstructed by the Tuoba Wei system. 

The replacement of one pyramid by another is what is called geming—literally, the removal of the ‘Mandate of Heaven’ as articulated by the Zhou. This video examines the impact of the Zhou conception of the Mandate of Heaven on the course of Chinese history. For an English-language video to pursue this issue with such depth and seriousness is already a remarkable achievement. 

In my view, however, the intellectual premise underlying this conception of the Mandate of Heaven remains the highly unified pyramidal ideal state. Heaven is unique and supreme, yet unlike the supreme and all-encompassing oneness imagined by later West Asian monotheisms, it is a form of supremacy and uniqueness embedded within a larger order. The ‘Heaven’ posited by the Zhou is in fact a symbol of the pyramid’s apex. The apex is supreme and unique, but it is not the entirety of the pyramid. The Son of Heaven, as Heaven’s representative on earth, is likewise supreme and unique within a larger order, yet remains a part of that order. 

This introduces a latent danger to the position of the Son of Heaven. Although the apex of the pyramid is indeed supreme and unique, who is entitled to occupy that apex—that is, who receives the Mandate of Heaven—is uncertain. Ultimately, the doctrine of the Mandate of Heaven is an embellishing discourse for the pyramidal ideal state. In the early Zhou, this embellishment was conducive to maintaining the Zhou system. But as the video points out, with the passage of time and the aging and decay of the system, this conception could come to threaten the legitimacy of particular rulers. Hence geming: how does the true Son of Heaven obtain the true Mandate? Entirely by whether he can rebuild a more orderly, more stable, and more enduring pyramid. 

The entire trajectory of Chinese history can be understood as a sequence of pyramidal transformations: the Zhou pyramid shattered and was upgraded into the Qin pyramid; the Qin pyramid collapsed and was revised into the Han pyramid; the Han pyramid then underwent four centuries of gradual decay before being reorganized and upgraded by the Tuoba Wei system into the Sui–Tang pyramid. The Sui–Tang pyramid subsequently disintegrated and gave rise to an upgraded Zhao Song pyramid; this pyramid was later destroyed by the Jurchen Jin and the Mongol Yuan, after which it was upgraded into the Ming and Manchu Qing pyramids. Following the turmoil of the Republican period, the system was further upgraded into the present PRC pyramid, characterized by a tighter structural order and a broader scope of control. 

The difference between the Zhou and the Qin lay only in means and degree; their ultimate goal and ideal were the same. By contrast, there is no evidence that the Shang (Yin) dynasty ever generated the concept of a unified pyramidal ideal state. The doctrine of the Mandate of Heaven, which functioned as the rhetorical embellishment of such a pyramidal ideal, was without doubt a Zhou creation. It therefore follows that the Shang (Yin)–Zhou transition was in fact the most profound transformation in Chinese history—far deeper than the Zhou–Qin transition. The Shang (Yin)–Zhou transition constituted a systemic replacement, whereas the Zhou–Qin transition was merely a systemic upgrade. Subsequent dynasties represent a continued, tortuous, and gradual process of upgrading this system toward the pyramidal ideal state. 

As for how such upgrading was possible, it was closely connected to the introduction of external technologies and influences. In early antiquity, these external inputs came primarily from the Western Regions (Central Asia) and the steppe. In fact, both the Zhou and the Qin originated as western frontier polities. They were therefore most deeply shaped by influences from the Central Asia and the steppe, and were the first to master certain technologies and to adopt more abstract modes of thought. In their respective eras, the Zhou and the Qin did indeed achieve remarkable accomplishments in institutional construction, far surpassing those of the eastern polities. Between the two, it was the Zhou that displayed greater ‘creativity’, while the Qin largely followed in its footsteps, further refining and perfecting the Zhou ideal. It was the Zhou, not the Qin, that shaped and constrained the Chinese imagination of institutions. Mao Zedong’s statement, expressed in a poem, that “later dynasties all practiced the Qin system” is true enough; yet the fuller account is that the Qin system itself was derived from the Zhou system. 

These remarks are offered merely to supplement what the English video did not address.

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